As the evidence flows in, it’s becoming more and more apparent that transgender identity is more likely a social contagion or a cultural fad than anything rooted in any real science or biology. Defenders of radical trans ideology have long insisted that the vast majority of transgender people are “born that way.”
That’s simply not the case, according to the evidence. There is a very small number of people who have a condition called gender dysphoria. The DSM-5 describes gender dysphoria as a significant and persistent marked incongruence between an individual’s experienced or expressed gender and their assigned sex at birth.
Now, we can debate how to medically handle those particular cases. Some believe that doctors should affirm the individuals’ feelings and use chemical intervention and surgery. Others believe mental health professionals should help those individuals navigate the world as their intended sex, much like mental health professionals handle other psychiatric conditions.
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But the truth is that the debate spends too much time discussing those rare cases and not enough time discussing the ones that have nothing to do with gender dysphoria and, instead, the medical system takes confused kids – or social-currency-seeking parents – and sterilizes them and puts them on a path to a lifetime of medical intervention.
Trends in Trans Identification: Recent Surveys and Studies
In a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, evolutionary biologist Colin Wright explored the mounting evidence that supports the hypothesis that the vast majority of transgender cases are more likely attributed to social factors.
“If transgender identity were an innate trait, like left-handedness, we would expect identification rates to rise at first when it became socially acceptable, then plateau and remain stable at a fixed level,” Wright wrote. “If the phenomenon were instead driven by social contagion, we might expect a boom-and-bust pattern: a spike followed by a rapid decline once the social forces driving it weaken.”
But Wright notes that the data doesn’t support the idea that trans identity is an innate trait.
“An analysis of campus surveys by Eric Kaufmann of the University of Buckingham and the Center for Heterodox Social Science found that the share of college students identifying as transgender fell 50% between 2023 and 2025,” Wright noted. “Psychologist Jean Twenge’s analysis of the annual Cooperative Election Study, administered by YouGov, found that transgender identification among 18- to 22-year-olds declined by nearly 50% between 2022 and 2024. She concluded that ‘it looks like the peak of trans identification is in the past.’”
While transgender activists argue that transgenderism is inherent in humans, data shows that most cases are much more likely to be a social contagion or cultural fad.
(Stock Photo – Getty Images)
Wright’s cited surveys are consistent with a recent pattern among newly released data.
A recent study out of England showed that “incidence rates of recorded gender dysphoria/incongruence increased from 0.14 to 4.4 per 10,000 person years” from 2011 to 2021, which represented a 3,000% increase.
That came on the heels of a German study that showed “for most young people, the gender-identity related diagnosis (F64) does not persist after 5 years.”
Essentially, trans identity suddenly spiked in the middle-to-late 2010s, and it’s now starting to fall. That pattern more closely resembles a cultural fad or social contagion than the discovery of a new disorder, as Wright argues.
“The overwhelming majority of those driving the trans craze fall into the ‘nonbinary’ category—adopting identities which are said to be neither, both, or somewhere between male and female. These include labels such as ‘demiboy,’ ‘genderfluid’ or ‘two-spirit.’ These are social identities, not biological ones,” Wright said.
“Unlike left- or right-handedness, which describe objectively measurable traits, ‘nonbinary’ identities have no anatomical or physiological referent. They are conceptual, political and responsive to cultural trends—hallmarks of social contagion.”
To that point, “nonbinary” identity is plummeting since its peak in 2023.
While activists have argued, even in court (such as in Talbott v. Trump [D.D.C. 2025]), that transgenderism is an immutable human characteristic, no significant scientific data backs them up.
“Studies of neuroanatomy, heritability and prenatal hormone exposure that claim a biological basis for gender identity are replete with small and selective samples, poor replication and uncontrolled confounding factors such as sexual orientation and cross-sex hormone treatment,” Wright wrote. “Properly interpreted, they describe correlates of sex nonconformity and same-sex attraction, not proof of an innate transgender identity.”
Wright continued, “The notion that transgender identity is biologically hard-wired can’t explain why there has been a more than 20-fold surge in those identifying as transgender in the U.S. since 2010.”
Trans Activists Ignore Science, Push Ideology
This is the piece of data that the radical left-wing activists refuse to acknowledge. They cannot explain how transgenderism suddenly spiked to the point that cases rose 2,000% in the United States during a roughly 15-year span.
This is part of the reason that transgender activists labeled anyone who dared to question their “science” as “transphobes” or “bigots.” Without facts on their side, they had to resort to ad-hominem attacks. But those who rejected their flawed premise never did so to be “hateful.” In fact, most of us were simply “following the science” as the left-wingers constantly cry for us to do.
“The social-contagion hypothesis was never hateful. It was purely descriptive: a recognition that social and cultural factors shape human behavior. For years, even hinting that such factors influenced transgender identities could end a career. Now, as data accumulate, this is becoming harder for anyone to deny,” Wright continued.
Generally, “follow the money” is a good rule of thumb when it comes to figuring out the motives for a sudden change in societal behavior. Unfortunately, treating young people who are struggling with their “identity” with talk therapy or other similar interventions doesn’t pay nearly as well as more drastic interventions like surgery and lifelong medication.
“The surge in transgender identification in recent years wasn’t the revelation of a hidden biological truth. It was a social phenomenon shaped by imitation, ideology and institutional reinforcement,” Wright concludes.
Well said, Mr. Wright. I couldn’t agree more.
Read the full article here
